| Niger Delta News: June 2007 |
Stakeholder Democracy News, Volume 2, Issue 4. 18th June 2007 Violence / Conflict / Kidnapping Issues
Analysis The most recent weekend of violence in Rivers State underlines how tenuous stability is in the region. This latest wave of conflict was reminiscent of the clashes that occurred over several months in 2004. Rivers now stands out as the State most likely to destabilise further regardless of 'ceasefires'. Urgent action is required to prevent competing interests of armed groups (often with political sponsors) escalating into roving conflicts, ahead of local government elections expected by November. The one-month 'ceasefire' in the Niger Delta technically expires July 3rd and MEND has declared the ceasefire at an end. The Federal Government will likely face expensive negotiation to gain an extension that will allow time for it to demonstrate its intentions. The first meeting of the 'reconciliation committee' on July 2nd showed the same signs of haste and cloudy intentions that affected the aborted 'summit'. There is an urgent need to press the Federal Government to improve its work in this area. Issues
Analysis The question of credibility for the incoming government remains open as it seeks to deal with a number of competing forces, from the basis of a government with no defensible popular mandate. International pressure in the past month for democratic reform appears limited at best. The question of a truly independent electoral commission needs to be maintained at the forefront of any dialogue by international stakeholders with Nigeria. The issue of how local government elections can be used to restore some connection with the grassroots of society is a critical challenge for government and any partners with an interest in improved governance to take on. Corruption / Governance / Transparency / Accountability Issue
Analysis The question of integrity is at the heart of whether President Y'Adua can recover some ground with the public and the international community after the rigging of the 2007 elections severely damaged the credibility of the incoming government. If the work of the EFCC falters, or is further undermined there will be reason to question whether there is a viable commitment to improving governance, in the Niger Delta or elsewhere. Former governors who have been cited for corruption are still openly vying for Federal cabinet positions. International pressure from all quarters for a credible cabinet will likely strengthen the hand of President Y'Adua in justifying his selection within the PDP, which is deeply divided between reformers and old guard elites. The level of domestic debt is an indicator of how easily the Nigerian economy could be dragged backwards by poor spending choices and corruption. Various State governments- especially in the Niger Delta - have been openly or privately complaining about finding further debts which have been accrued by outgoing administrations. Sustainable Development / Environment Issue
Analysis The release of the master plan and the associated effort to disseminate the document widely and openly set a useful precedent. As yet there has been little substantial analysis or response to the master plan, therefore positions which suggest filtering all responses to the Niger Delta problems through the plan are premature. Certainly some projections - for example financial estimates which project more than $500 million to be spent over 5 years on security in the region - deserve much closer examination. The plan continues an 'infrastructure heavy' approach which creates opportunities for very large contracts and associated patronage opportunities. A closer examination of development activities that will systematically reduce tensions and reduce 'security' costs would seem far more appropriate. |
