Disturbing Progression

The post election violence in the Niger Delta that continued throughout May should be of particular concern to all stakeholders. It took several months in 2003 before differences between armed groups and the Rivers State government boiled over into all-out conflict with the army and security forces. In 2007, this process took just a matter of days: a number of militant raids were calculated to demonstrate that neither government nor oil companies should assume their position in the Niger Delta is assured.

While a range of clashes between militants and government forces were widely reported, less prominent incidents should be cause for concern too. The post election period has witnessed a number of conflicts in rural communities, each of which has resulted in a severe loss of life and widespread damage, such as clashes in Botem, Kpite, and Kono Boue in Ogoni. Local accounts persistently blame political sponsorship and the increased availability of arms for the escalation of initial clashes.

One of the most significant incidents took place south of Port Harcourt near Tombia on the eve of the inauguration of the incoming governor. Around 15 people were reported killed, including a leading armed group commander Prince Igodo. It is believed that the attack was orchestrated to prevent interference with inauguration events. Such sponsorship by government could easily trigger an upgraded version of the wave of attacks and counter attacks which characterised the collapse of security in Rivers State in 2004, and which focused around leaders of armed groups Asari Dokubo and Ateke Tom.

The incident in Tombia - and persistent reports of further weapons distribution before and during the elections - increases the prospect of serious conflict in coming months. If government groups opt to sponsor fratricidal fighting between armed groups this presents a high chance of backfiring spectacularly. It also risks shortening the fragile ‘cease-fire’ period that should hold, at least through June.