A Challenging Month Ahead

The first month after the inauguration of incoming President Uruma Y’Adua on May 29th - whose ascent was marked by an extraordinary condemnation by local and international election observers - looks set to become extraordinarily busy if he is to meet his pledges regarding the Niger Delta. He has still to deal with local and domestic anger over the elections, and has been given only a partial one-month ‘cease-fire’ by militants who openly express scepticism about his intentions for the region.

The one-month cease-fire declared by the militant group MEND is a fair indication of the limited patience that people have: they are waiting to see what the incoming President and Vice President have to offer.

The time is short, especially by Nigerian standards where bureaucracy, poor infrastructure and internal administrative politics can easily delay plans made with the best of intentions. It will be the end of the month before President Y’Adua even has a confirmed cabinet. Yet talk of “Master Plans” and “Marshall Plans” continues. A ‘traditional’ resort to large scale development projects – which offer the prospect of contracting opportunities for the well-connected, rather than addressing key issues like youth unemployment - will not meet with a favourable reaction from militants and activists.

The Federal Government and oil operators will need to come up with truly innovative initiatives if they are to open a path away from widespread sympathy for increased militancy. Conflict in the Niger Delta buffeted international oil prices for much of May: even as militant group MEND declared a cease-fire, a string of kidnappings demonstrated how easily the levels violence in the region could become systemic and more intense than has been experienced to date. The speculation around severe staff and operational cutbacks by Shell - and the UK Foreign Office advice to British nationals to leave the region - underscore just how serious the crisis in the Niger Delta has become.