| Niger Delta News, May 2007 |
Stakeholder Democracy News, Volume 2, Issue 4. 18th June 2007 Violence / Conflict / Kidnapping Issues
Analysis The month of May did not produce the scaling down of militant activity which some analysts had been predicting. Instead, MEND opted to demonstrate its capacity to damage oil production; and there was a violent signal that the elevation of Goodluck Johnathan will not be sufficient - in itself - to quell violence. Both the Federal Government and militants demonstrated some capacity to engage constructively at the end of the month, with a quasi cease-fire declared by militants. However, June commenced with confusing signals over the release of militant leader Asari Dokubo - which was resolved on his release in mid-June - and a serious risk of politically fuelled conflict in Rivers State. International actors and businesses need to maintain a close watch on the Niger Delta. An ideal response is tricky for them to pull off, to say the least: supporting Federal Government engagement in the Niger Delta without brushing aside the collapse in legitimacy caused by the 2007 elections. These international stakeholders need to support tangible attempts by the Federal Government to address the root causes of the grievances in the Niger Delta, whilst recognising the fact that they are working with an administration that has no electoral legitimacy. Supporting - and even promoting - serious and positive engagement in the Niger Delta by the Federal Government is still preferable to inaction. However, if that support comes at the expense of demanding fundamental electoral reform and international involvement it may end up doing more harm than good. Issues
Analysis Overall, the international reaction to the Nigerian elections has been weak and does not reflect the severity of the electoral abuses. However, President Y'Adua seems to be aware of significant domestic anger over the elections and the abrupt declaration of a public holiday on May 28th -scheduled as a day for symbolic strike action - was an early sign that the Federal Government lacks the arrogant confidence of the previous administration. Nigerian activists continue to demand action over the elections and the international community can contribute to reform by actively supporting calls for the Electoral Commission to be systematically overhauled and made truly independent of government. Failure to develop and maintain pressure for reform will international stakeholders with little credibility if they demand improved governance and security in the Niger Delta. The local government elections to be held later this year should be used as a bench mark by the international community to assess the seriousness of the new Federal and State administrations' commitment to real democracy. Corruption / Governance / Transparency / Accountability Issue
Analysis The assertion by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) that governors committing fraud would be arrested as soon as their immunity expired seems to have at least been put on hold under political pressure. As several key targets of investigation were major funders of the Presidential election campaign the issue will be a major challenge for the incoming President. Reducing State level corruption is critical to progress in the Niger Delta especially if greater funds are to be returned to the region. The international community needs to maintain pressure on the Federal Government to make political office holders in the region accountable for their actions and make the link between public accountability, democratic representation, Nigeria's economic stability and the prospects for lasting political stability in the region. Sustainable Development / Environment Issue
Analysis The incoming Federal Government has sent mixed signals about its engagement in the Niger Delta. The proposed summit was intended to signal intent to get straight to business but it was shelved as questions were raised about the agenda and who was invited to the meeting. Similar mixed signals went out relating to militant leader Asari Dokubo, who was initially refused bail on 8th June despite government fuelling expectations, but was later released as was being widely suggested would happen. Hesitancy by the Federal Government may ultimately be less damaging than the approach in Rivers State, where key sustainable development law seems to have been passed without any visible public consultation. The reports of huge layoffs and a possible transfer of operations at Shell are real indicators of the level of the conflict and its economic impact. Investors should ask persistent questions of oil companies over their plans to contribute to stabilising the region in coming months. |
