March and April - Immediate Priorities

The 2003 elections witnessed a collapse of the democratic process, where in several Niger Delta states all representatives of government - from State Governor to the lowest local councillor - came from the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). This failure of democracy has meant politicians cannot be held accountable and their actions and policies have no meaning or connection to people's daily realities.

Non violent civil society groups have long called for the need to open up the "democratic space" so that there is at least some genuine cross party representation at the level of State House of Assemblies and local government. Although the situation varies from state to state, there is a critical need to support efforts that prove peaceful attempts at securing real democratic representation can succeed.

In states such as Rivers this may not be easy. Some government spokespeople seem determined to publicly deny the concept of rigged elections to the last. The Rivers Commissioner for Information told the BBC recently that the widely criticised and violent 2003 elections were "the most peaceful in the history of Rivers State".

The months of March and April present obvious difficulties for the Niger Delta, which is made worse by the fact that a number of countries are on the brink of instructing their nationals to leave the region. The Philippines and Italy have already advised or instructed their nationals to leave. At least one major oil-company has had staff on a "lockdown" for around two weeks at the time of writing.

Once put in place, further security restrictions would stay for a period of months, further isolating the Niger Delta at a critical period. A hasty withdrawal by the international community - including oil workers - would have serious political, social and economic impacts.

The importance of credible international election observation in the Niger Delta in this context cannot be understated. If Niger Delta states are to be asked to improve election standards, credible independent observers must be present to assess whether there is a noticeable difference between the lows seen in 2003, and 2007.

International observers will also provide some security to local observation efforts that could easily come under intense pressure in some areas. It must also be noted that there is no easy substitute for well-distanced international observers. [v] In 2003 the African Union sent monitors, and although a competent team in Port Harcourt observed the same abuses as others, the AU report made no mention whatsoever of the Niger Delta or other problem areas.

Lessons must also be drawn from 2003 where a "quiet diplomacy" approach to the Federal Government over electoral abuses in Rivers State failed comprehensively. [vi]

It is important that the international community is prepared for robust and forthright engagement with incoming office holders, and that there is a clear agenda for reducing the damage from abuses of the Federal elections.

Local government elections - controlled by State governments - will follow shortly after Federal elections, and they can serve as a means for improving representation. However, if local government elections are also ignored or mishandled this will further fuel potential conflict and embed violence - and impunity that follows from it - as electoral tools.

Civil society in the Niger Delta has been an active voice in trying to bring some accountability to state and local governments. However, around the time of elections civil society critics are particularly vulnerable. If the international community and companies expect civil society leaders and groups to play a positive role in the coming months it is vital they make clear to government and political actors in Nigeria - and especially the Niger Delta - that threats or assaults will have serious political ramifications.

Interested actors should also note that in the Niger Delta there is a strong chance that the first elections - 14th April for Governor and State House of Assembly- could be even more hotly contested than the Presidential elections of 21st April. This is because the governorship and local contests will have more obvious and immediate impacts on local communities and interests.

It is critical that Federal and State governments address the root causes of the problems in the Niger Delta. In doing this they must also protect the lives of the citizens who they serve. The absence of a security presence in the centre of Port Harcourt at a time when kidnapping is at an all time high demonstrates the fact that security services are not being deployed as they should be, to protect the public rather than political interests. The security services have a duty to protect citizens so they can go about their lawful business, including voting. The international community should remind the security services of this fact.