| Niger Delta News, January 2007 |
Stakeholder Democracy News, Volume 2, Issue 1. 9th February 2007 Violence / Conflict / Kidnapping Issues
Analysis Throughout December and January militia group MEND has continued to threaten and demonstrate increased levels of violence. Car bombs in December were intended to signal MEND's ability to attack further targets if demands are not met. Despite increased military and security presence, MEND has also continued to conduct kidnappings, as have gangs seeking to cash in on ransom opportunities (MEND has explicitly disowned some kidnappings, such as that of 24 Filipinos held since 20th January). The swift extraction of Soboma George, who had been declared wanted for months, should serve as a warning of the continued imbalance in force between the militias and police. The belated deployment of helicopter gunships only served to emphasise the blunt tools available for any security response. Kidnapping and opportunistic crime is likely to remain a feature of the Delta until there is a fundamental change in the treatment by the Nigerian State and oil companies of communities in slums, and in the countryside where most oil production occurs. These communities need to feel they are part of society, with a direct interest in promoting better security. Collective pressure from oil companies and other international interests is blocking a disproportionate military response to violent militia activity. Preventing an escalation of violence is critical if the door is to be kept open for reconciliation between government, oil company and militia interests. Issue
Analysis President Obasanjo has sought to maintain a high level of control over any incoming PDP government by arranging his own elevation to chair the Board of Trustees of the PDP, while at the same time backing a relatively unknown northern state governor as Presidential candidate. The choice reflected Obasanjo's Presidential will rather than a collegiate democratic process. Similar problems beset the earlier choice of PDP governorship candidates. This top down approach will broaden the risk of political violence, as frustration increases in areas where local opinion is being suppressed. While delays to the elections - that at present are widely feared - may not in fact occur, that these fears exist indicates the general level of concern about the conduct of the elections. There is a need for sustained pressure on the Nigerian government to improve every level of the electoral process. Corruption / Governance / Transparency / Accountability Issue
Analysis The arrest of Amaechi and two other state commissioners came at the critical juncture of the Presidential / VP campaign of Rivers State Governor Peter Odili. The EFCC move effectively ended the political bid of Peter Odili and continues to have ramifications in the New Year, although the EFCC is yet to bring any charges regarding its investigation. Amaechi had just secured the PDP nomination for Rivers Governor at the time of his arrest. He has since been released but on Saturday February 3rd he was the only PDP candidate in the 'south-south' zone not to receive a symbolic party flag. It is expected that intense political manoeuvring as to who will finally secure the PDP ticket will continue until February 15th, the last date on which parties can substitute nominees. The perceived integrity of the PDP's eventual nominee in this focal oil state will have a significant impact on local and international sentiments towards the elections. Much of Nigeria's claim to reform rests on increased transparency of how oil funds are secured and spent. However, since the sacking of Finance Minister Ngozi Ikweala the shackles on spending appear to have been released to an alarming degree. The 2007 budget included around $35 billion to be committed in forward infrastructure contracts from the excess crude account, which has already depleted significantly. The moral obligation is on the outgoing Obasanjo government to show beyond doubt that the projects are value for money, and that funds and contracts are not being distributed in an end of administration clearout of available funds. The Human Rights Watch Report on local government corruption in Rivers State may become the reference text for those demanding governance reforms. Its detailed case studies throw a spotlight on the volume of corruption. National and international media has extensively canvassed the report. The Rivers State Commissioner for Local Government has refuted the content of the report and announced at a HRW press conference that he would hold his own conference with LG chairmen attending to respond to allegations in the week of 5th-10th February. Sustainable Development / Environment Issue
Analysis Y'Adua's conciliatory statement on the sensitive issue of the share of oil revenues is a small, positive step at improving relations in the New Year. Although there is little trust remaining amongst communities and militias of government at any level, the PDP candidate starts with some advantages: a lack of political baggage and a deputy who for the first time comes from the Niger Delta region. All actors with any influence need to maintain pressure on Y'Adua to make a clean break with the way relations with Niger Delta have been managed to date from a Presidential level. He also has the challenging task of ensuring that local political elites, including State governors, do not capture benefits intended for the rest of society. The oil fires in Ogoni are a reminder that with the decreased level of security across the Niger Delta oil spills are receiving even less attention than usual. Failure to deal with oil spills - and 'security' arrangements by oil companies with local gangs - are worsening relations with communities. This is intensifying existing grievances that will lead to greater hostility and militancy. A fresh commitment by both oil companies and government is needed to deal with spills before relationships at the community level are further poisoned. The two development plans that were presented by Rivers and Bayelsa State Governments as their major response to 'restiveness' in the Niger Delta in 2006 have languished in the face of PDP political contests. Setting aside debates over the effectiveness of the plans, the State governments must be reminded of the need to maintain credible development action on the ground regardless of ongoing political contests. |
