• Violence, Conflict, Kidnapping
• Democracy & Civil Society
• Corruption, Governance, Transparency & Accountability
• Sustainable Development

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Violence / Conflict / Kidnapping

Issue

• A British oil worker, kidnapped with 6 others from a Saipem oil rig, was killed in crossfire when the kidnappers ran into a Navy patrol later in the day of the abduction on 27th November.
• Two people were killed in a raid by an unidentified armed group at the premises of a non-governmental organisation AAPW (Academic Associates Peace Works) in Port Harcourt on 20th November. It is unclear whether the killings were solely related to militant group activities.

Analysis

SDN's sense is that the local reaction to both of these incidents was regret, mixed with resignation to the fact that more deaths are inevitable so long as the polarised political situation continues. However, major attacks that were threatened by militants - and which led to the US State Department revising its travel advice to the Niger Delta - have not yet materialised. This leaves open the space for the Nigerian government and aspiring election candidates to show that they are serious about changing conditions on the ground. International actors should demand tangible evidence that the State is trying to improve life in the Delta. There are obvious examples of neglect that can be addressed immediately by government such as the continuing, appalling state of the Lagos-Benin highway despite a promised major road expansion.

Democracy / Civil Society

Issue

• Three Niger Delta governors have joined the race for nomination for the Presidential candidacy under the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP): Peter Odili from Rivers State; Victor Attah from Akwa Ibom; and Donald Duke from Cross Rivers State, are among 27 candidates.
• PDP primary processes produced sporadic violence and deaths in Rivers State, with some primaries delayed in Bayelsa and Delta states. Primaries and congresses will continue each weekend until at least 16th December, when a national congress is supposed to decide on the PDP party's Presidential candidate.
• Vice President Atiku Abubakar announced that he will stand for President under an unspecified party other than the PDP, and formally launched his campaign on 25th November.

Analysis

While there is very considerable cynicism in the Niger Delta about politicians, there is still an underlying desire for democracy, and for inspirational, committed leadership. Candidates need to be able to inspire confidence in disillusioned communities. Voters want candidates to have credible plans for the future, and to see evidence of candidates' track records.

Corruption / Governance / Transparency / Accountability

Issue

• Unconfirmed newspaper reports suggest that the United States has banned at least 5 state governors from visiting, based upon presentations by Nigeria's Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) on pending corruption investigations.

Analysis

In the closing stages of the current administration the stance of the EFCC and the international community regarding corruption is likely to be critical to longer-term governance. The EFCC and other arms of government are facing accusations of politically partisan, selective investigations. Yet if accountability is to have any meaning it is vital for the development of areas such as the Niger Delta that some of the most outrageous abusers of public funds are held to account. International actors should support moves by the EFCC where clear evidence is provided of corruption. Candidates for the Nigerian Presidency must provide the strongest possible assurances that they will ensure that the EFCC is able to operate effectively and independently under an incoming administration. So far, the British government is the only one to act over money laundering by Nigerian government officials. If the international community is to have credibility in campaigning for improved governance in Nigeria, other countries should take action to return stolen money and bring criminal charges.

Sustainable Development / Environment

Issue

• Rivers State Sustainable Development Plan and Bayelsa Partnership Initiative have gone quiet during the political season.
• Rivers State Independent Power project due for commissioning.

Analysis

After the initial flurry of publicity, there has been little public exposure of these plans, especially the RSSDP. Stakeholders need to ask about the commitment to public transparency of both of these plans, and for evidence that the promised consultations will take place. The Rivers State Omuk gas turbine is due for commissioning 5th December, although indications are that the delayed project will initially only provide power to Port Harcourt. Stakeholders should urge the state government to complete work to extend this to rural areas, repair the failed Eleme turbine, and fully disclose proposed spending such as the 23 billion Naira supplementary budget for 2006.