• Violence, Conflict, Kidnapping
• Democracy & Civil Society
• Corruption, Governance, Transparency & Accountability
• Sustainable Development

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Violence / Conflict / Kidnapping

Issue

• Nine soldiers were killed on 2nd October during the kidnapping of 25 Shell workers at Cawthorne Channel in Rivers State. They were released after 2 days.
• Seven foreign oil workers were kidnapped from the compound of Exxon Mobil in Akwa Ibom state on 3rd October. They were held for almost three weeks. One Scottish hostage was falsely reported dead in effort to strengthen ransom negotiations.
• US Embassy reports possible plan by militias to attack multiple oil installations and conduct simultaneous kidnappings in first week of November.

Analysis

Militia group MEND slightly distanced itself from the kidnappings in October. The 'Joint Revolutionary Council' claimed responsibility for the Cawthorne Channel incident.

Threats by MEND and militants of "massive" attacks in the Niger Delta have emerged on several occasions since February of this year. The temptation to discount such threats should be weighed against the absence of any meaningful disarmament, grassroots scepticism about government economic development efforts, and a reported determination amongst militants to prove they are a force to be reckoned with and can't be cracked down upon.

Democracy / Civil Society

Issue

• Voter registration for 2007 elections starts very slowly as Independent National Election Commission (INEC) is unable to deliver new 'data capture' machines to be used for registration. Niger Delta areas suffer same problem as those reported nationwide. Typically one or two machines, instead of projected dozens, are currently available per local government area with a capacity to process 20 to 30 persons per day.

Analysis

Having committed to a technically demanding process, INEC now has an obligation to communicate clearly how registration will be completed despite equipment failures and weeks of delays. The current problems are further eroding very limited public confidence in the registration and electoral process. INEC will need to mount an honest and open drive to recover ground if it is to avoid the sort of damaging collapse - and eventual abandonment of the project - which occurred with the National Identity Card scheme in 2004.

Corruption / Governance / Transparency / Accountability

Issue

• The Federal Budget for 2007 contains a 20% increase in spending and a request to spend around $27 billion from the 'excess crude' account built up over several years since its establishment in 2004.

Analysis

The Federal Government and several State governments have broken with earlier patterns of delaying budgets and have introduced 2007 budgets for approval. While early presentation of budgets is a positive step, political observers point out that this creates an opportunity for current administrations to spend through available funds and take responsibility for awarding contracts ahead of the 2007 elections.

This could prove fiscally damaging at the Federal and State level, and limit options to mount serious efforts to change the situation in the Niger Delta by incoming State administrations. The Federal and Rivers State budgets share themes that refer to 'consolidation'. More evidence is needed of increased transparency and commitment of resources by the Nigeria state to reducing poverty and addressing the root causes of the problems affecting regions including the Niger Delta. The large drawdown on the excess crude account, at the Federal level, is one example of an ongoing preference at all levels of government for large infrastructure projects ahead of poverty reducing programs. (For more information see SDN's October Analysis.)

Sustainable Development / Environment

Issue

• The oil fire at Kpean in Ogoni, which broke out in the last week of August, has continued to burn throughout October, despite the intervention of well fire specialists 'Boots and Coots'.
• Bayelsa holds state launch of its Bayelsa Partnership Initiative(BPI) in Yenagoa.

Analysis

The announcement that Shell's licence may be withdrawn came in the same week that Ogoni rights group MOSOP (Movement for the Survival of the Ogoni People) held meetings calling on the government to consider another operator for the Ogoni region.

Critics of Shell in Ogoni have become frustrated at the lack of progress in the three way reconciliation process between the various representatives of Ogoni people, the Nigerian government and the oil company. Among several practical reminders of the government and Shell's limited interest in reconciliation has been the failure to provide electricity in the area for almost 12 months.

The relative lack of attention paid to a major oil fire is symptomatic of the depth of problems in the Ogoni area and the Niger Delta generally. Increased conflict in the creeks of the Niger Delta has also severely limited reporting on oil spills. Issues such as 'oil bunkering'- that would normally be expected to jump dramatically in areas where production has been closed - have effectively disappeared from press reports.

The Bayelsa launch of the BPI signals Dr Goodluck Jonathan's intention to promote the initiative as part of his 2007 election campaign. In the case of development plans in both Rivers and Bayelsa there is an urgent need to pay attention to the quality of relationships with communities and their representation in the development agenda. Previous development initiatives highlight the risk of 'community representation' being captured by financial or political interests, with the result that communities see little or none of the promised gains. All stakeholders need to be persistent in asking for evidence that these plans are being widely disseminated for genuine grassroots consultation.