Democracy, in Spirit Not Just in Name

It is recognised that the true successes of a real democracy would still take time to deliver; however the current trajectory to systematic failure must be challenged. Four key changes should be supported in order to help deliver democracy to the people of the Niger Delta. These are: ensuring that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) becomes independent, delivering grassroots civic education about the electoral process, educating the political elite on the importance of the political process and a long term election monitoring programme jointly supported both domestically and more importantly by a large contingent of long term international observers.

INEC can no longer be funded, staffed and controlled by the PDP political elite. It should be staffed by representatives of all the major political parties and trade unions in order to ensure its independence and legitimacy. This should help ensure a democratic foundation based around an independent and efficient organisation that should heavily scrutinise the electoral process and be heavy scrutinised itself. It must be provided with the funds, independence and technical support early enough to help to convince the citizens of the Niger Delta that significant changes to the electoral process have occurred. This can not happen soon enough. The international community could jointly fund and support a Nigerian government led initiative in order to achieve this.

INEC's independence would help ensure a firm structure for democracy to build upon. However, unless the population and the political elites are educated on the importance of and how to ensure democracy then the reform of INEC would be of limited use. This civic education should not stand alone it should be incorporated into a wider push for sustainable peace in the Niger Delta. The human capacity, experience and expertise to deliver this democracy education in the Niger Delta exist in abundance. It is the monetary funds that are severely lacking and at this point in time unlikely to be delivered early enough to make a real difference to the electoral process. It is important therefore to work on initiatives that not only have a short term impact around the elections but begin to support sustainable change after the electoral process is complete.

It is paramount to the potential success of the above three initiatives, that they are linked and delivered in conjunction with a complete overhaul of the electoral process itself. If the above can be achieved and local owned drivers for change are supported at the grassroots then the most important thing that the western political system could do, to ensure that the potential powder keg that is the Niger Delta does not explode, is a vocal year long election monitoring process that documents political abuses and supports local initiatives for sustainable change.

What the monitoring of the 2003 elections demonstrated is that although present in abundance, local monitors had little or no impact on the electoral process. The citizens of the Delta either rightly feared too much for their own survival or were unable to access the necessary areas in order to fairly monitor the electoral process. This is not to undermine the very important role that local monitors would have to play alongside a large international presence. The combining of the well developed civil society capacity to monitor elections alongside a year long international election monitoring process could really give the local population the necessary confidence to ensure democracy is delivered and that the ground is set for sustained engagement in the post electoral period. The mere presence of knowledgeable foreign nationals alongside Nigerian counterparts, would not only help reinforce a picture of free and fair elections, but remove the blanket of impunity for serious electoral violations. This is presuming that the monitoring process would be reported accurately and fairly.

Methods of delivering free and fair elections that should be encouraged are ensuring that the votes are fairly counted. The experience in Kano in 2003, where the population waited for the count to be held in the open, is a much talked about case study. This open counting of the vote could easily occur and then the result should be sent via mobile phone to an independent INEC, supported in their attempts to deliver an accountable and transparent process by the reforming central Nigerian elite and the governments of the West. It is obviously clear that the current international norm of election monitoring taking place for a couple of weeks over the electoral period would have limited impact on the electoral system: "what is the point of monitoring a process that is going to be truly flawed?" If the monitoring was to have the much desired effect it should monitor the electoral process from the as early as piossiable in 2006 right through until all the seats are finalised. This action from the West would receive massive support at the grassroots and prominent organisations for all ethnic groups, such as the Ijaw Youth Council would be willing to play and active supporting role in this process.

These four suggested courses of action are not a long term solution to the problems in the Niger Delta; they are a small part of the immediate action that is required in order to stave off a terrifying conflict, the impacts of which will be felt wide and far. They must been seen as a short term minimum, in order to help recreate some form of social contract that would create the space necessary to deliver on the potential benefits of democracy. The most important aspect of this would be the positive distribution of the Niger Delta's oil wealth in order to tackle the chronic poverty and perception of neglect. The foundation for these electoral reform measures exists at the local level but they must be delivered from above with the support of the international community.

Let's hope and pray Nigeria becomes the great African superpower it can and should be. This will only occur if the Nigerian political elite have a firm commitment and belief that a free and fair electoral process is central to Nigeria's development. 2007 will be the test as to whether this commitment exists. At the moment the population of the Niger Delta do not hold out much hope.