A New Social Contract

This lack of a social contract between the people and the politicians is widely felt in the rural communities and is readily explained as those in power having to hide in Port Harcourt and Abuja to avoid the people they are supposed to represent. It seems fair to say that not only has the local population lost faith in the democratic process, the politicians do not even attempt to hide their corruption of the electoral process. It seems that that the norm during the 2003 election was that individuals were not allowed to cast their vote in a free and fair manner, or if they were lucky enough to do so, the result was made up anyway. Worryingly it is now perceived that in the run-up to the 2007 electoral process no single entity will this time have the monopoly of violence necessary to control this electoral process. This is potentially the most deadly short term conflict escalator that if allowed to ignite will result in a long term high intensity conflict dynamic. Attempted political assignations and retaliations could all to quickly become the norm.

Even those who paint the most depressing picture of the run-up to the 2007 electoral process still have hope that things might change. Small changes, that would allow the populations on the ground to witness a transition from the current political trajectory, would be warmly welcomed by most parties and could play a significant contribution to reducing the violence associated with the 2007 electoral process.

The citizens of the Niger Delta have not lost their desire for democracy; all stakeholders must work together to ensure they get to exercise this most basic of human rights. However, on the whole it was believed that significant changes to the system are very unlikely and therefore a very steep and slippery path to widespread destruction and loss of life is where the Niger Delta is being slowly pushed by its political elite. The violence is already starting as 'big men' begin to seek that all conquering political ticket. It is believed that this violence will steadily increase from now as we draw closer to the elections. The political violence itself will be very significant however, the most important thing that will come out of this will be the politicalisation of already fraught tensions. It is possible that the expected political violence could trigger a horrific conflict based around a complex web of ethnic, loyalty and patronage networks, that once started would very rapidly escalate out of control. This must not be allowed to happen.

The delivery of democracy to the people of the Niger Delta is paramount in reducing the current conflict dynamic. If individuals perceive that finally 'their lot' might be changing and that they will have a chance to exercise their constitutional right to vote, then they will be less drawn to the last resort, that a majority are moving closer to, the gun.

Importantly there is a general feeling that civil society's voice from below could not alone change the current farce of democracy. Real emphasis is placed on the role the international community and especially the British government could play in supporting processes that will delivering democracy to the people. The citizens of the Niger Delta truly believe that staunch criticism of the current political situation, by the British and US governments, and a strong call for democracy to be delivered, backed up by a variety of supporting mechanism would result in a significant transition in the political process of the Niger Delta.

All stakeholders realise that things need to change for the long term benefit of all and this public show of support for true democracy is paramount. It has been suggested that Nigeira's much desired seat on the Security Council should be used to help shepherd the delivery of a true democracy. This public call for democracy would also give those politicians willing to change an international platform of support and dramatically increase their legitimacy. This would help ensure the, much worried about, energy security of the West because if the Niger Delta was stable, production could be significantly increased and more efficient. This stability will only come through engaging the local population and therefore the dividend of democracy is more important than the process itself. The international community must act now to help local initiatives that create his local hope and change.