"By the people for the people" is a concept far removed from the political realities of 'democrazy' in the Niger Delta.

Unrepresentative politicians maintain patronage networks that dominate business and public life. Ordinary people are denied real democratic representation, and receive little by way of economic development.

Small, tangible engagements at a local level by all stakeholders in the Delta's human and natural wealth - aimed at promoting peace and self empowerment of communities - could go a long way to ensuring the expected political violence in the run up to the 2007 elections does not accelerate. A worsening conflict could destablise the whole region.

Democracy in the Niger Delta is far removed from true democracy. The democratic process is not perceived by ordinary people as free or fair: the only thing that is transparent about the process it is that is is frequently manipulated to serve the interests of those already in power.

In 2003's elections, governing PDP candidates routinely returned more than 90% of the eligible vote. This speaks volumes for the illegitimacy of the process. Most communities in the Delta did not get to vote, and if they did the result was rigged anyway. This process reinforced the divisions between political elites and the population, and contributed to the current mood of scepticism surrounding the forthcoming 2007 elections.

The 2007 elections could be a serious flash point in the Niger Delta's history, accelerating the existing conflict and setting back a region rich in natural resources and the immense human potential of its citizens, by a whole generation.

The international community can not turn a blind eye to this danger as it has mostly ignored the Delta in the decade since the region came to international prominence through the Ogoni crisis. In the Niger Delta, the argument that establishing democracy takes time to deliver tangible benefits - so people should wait and see - is fundamentally flawed. Among the many consequences of the proliferation of weapons and the rise of militias and gangs sparked by their employment to rig 2003's elections, has been a trend of politicians - and even some communities - to take matters into their own hands. In short, people are through with waiting.

If 'democrazy' continues, the region's instability will be pushed towards breaking point. Potentially, this could have disastrous impacts on international investments in the region, and more importantly on the lives and livlihoods of the ordinary people of the Niger Delta caught up in the conflict.

The international community must work with civil society groups to assess the potential flash points of political violence arising in the Niger Delta, and to identify ways to mitigate against them.

This process would help strengthen the Delta's critically weakened civil society institutions, including by reinvigorating free and independent media, as a foundation of a stable and prosperous future for the region. It is crucial that this engagement between all the stakeholders in the Delta - on the ground and internationally - happens, if the true dividends of democracy are every going to be enjoyed by the population at large.