Niger Delta Youth

The perceived environmental degradation has significantly reduced the agricultural yield of the Niger Delta; therefore the traditional means of existence such as faming and fishing is significantly reducing and youths are looking to other avenues of social mobility. The recognition that violence pays is very difficult to ignore for large numbers of disenchanted youths, from all backgrounds. These youths are therefore attracted to the disingenuous, short term, self replicating spiral of gang culture in a bid to gain at least a foothold of social mobility and status. Those that have been in armed groups, either political, ethnic or militias have soon realised that the higher up the ladder one is, the more there is to be gained and the chance of being held to account is very slim. Therefore, the Niger Deltas armed groups are undergoing a series of worrying splits and formation of counter alliances in a misguided attempt to gain an advantage in the up and coming violence. The leaders of the two best known militia groups Dokubo-Asari's Niger Delta Peoples Volunteer Force (NDPVF) and Ateke Tom's Icelanders are reported to have been previously closely associated with the ruling PDP. These groups have recently undergone splits of their own and are part of the worrying trend of increasingly fractured loyalties.

Political manoeuvres will increasingly be the key to the conflict dynamic in the run-up to the 2007 election. It is expected that the violence will really begin to escalate in association with the campaign for selection of candidates at the PDP primaries in early 2006. It is impossible to predict how this violence will pan out. One thing that can be assumed is that the violence will not be based around a relatively simple two sided dynamic.

Poverty and the perception that there is no other way, has forced peace loving individuals to agree with others that violence is the only option left. Therefore, the Niger Delta is a complex web of shifting loyalties and associations of which perhaps 10% are hell bent on the spoils of illegal activities and violence, whilst the majority are so desperate to transform their situation that they are willing to go to any means to achieve this. The poverty driven conflict dynamic at the local level will be played out within and around the violence associated with the 2007 elections. The PDP candidates will fight anyone that threatens their attempt to secure their political patronage systems. There is still a small avenue of hope through which this very worrying dynamic can be reversed. All stakeholders must actively promote peace and sustainable change.

To date, the failings of the international community to address or even attempt to understand the increasing conflict dynamic in the Niger Delta completely undermines the internationally recognised certainty that conflict prevention, not resolution, is a must. The failing of the British and American governments to positively condemn the completely flawed 2003 electoral process in the Niger Delta, has reinforced an assumption held by a majority of the citizens in the Niger Delta that a political system that will guarantee the continued flow of oil is more important to the West than the delivery of basic human rights and democracy to the citizens of the Niger Delta. The continued silence on the plight of the population of the Niger Delta and reinforcement of support for a grossly flawed political system, has furthered the belief that violence is the only option left, "if enough of us die they will have to listen". It does appear that small steps in the right direction are beginning to occur but a much more proactive engagement is needed if any serious efforts to stop the rising conflict dynamic are to occur.

Another worrying dynamic of the violence in the Niger Delta is the unjustifiable use of excessive force by the state security forces in response to not only violent acts but more worryingly peaceful protests or calls for change. The Nigerian police force, military and navy are working under the same commander, and are used interchangeably to keep order in the Niger Delta, all are perceived to be corrupt, underpaid and likely to shoot first and ask questions later. This must change if the Delta is every to be peaceful. There are serious concerns by all parties that if the current dynamic was allowed to develop into the violent situation that is expected, it would be questionable whether an unmotivated and disillusioned state security apparatus would be willing or able to keep the peace; 'why should I die for another mans community'. This belief is widespread and gives the growing powers of the other armed actors in the Niger Delta an increased confidence, impunity and resultant perception of legitimacy

Although the primary frustrations felt by the majority of the population due to the continued poverty and neglect of the Niger Delta are focused at the failings of the Nigerian state. It is widely perceived that the oil majors have an important secondary role in continuing and escalating the conflict dynamic that exists in the Niger Delta.

Because the state has failed to deliver, communities are drawn to gain some provision from the visible and accessible oil majors who are perceived as being at one with the state "if you can not get the butcher, you go after the butchers dog". It is perceived that the oil wealth has and is propping up an unaccountable self enhancing elite, at the expense of the majority of the population. The oil majors do pay the Nigerian state their dues, but it is strongly believed that similar dues are not paid to the communities who feel the full impacts of the oil majors operations. Due to the lack of accessible channels of communication and a perception that the oil majors do not want to speak to the local communities, these communities have learnt from experience that direct and often violent action is the only way to get a result.

It is undeniable that the oil revenue has not led to an improvement of the situation of the majority of the population in the Niger Delta, 'oil boom – oil doom', seems to hold true. It is perceived that the scramble for oil revenues has undermined the harmony and respect of the Niger Delta and short term self motivated calculations have become the norm. Some commentators even go so far as to claim there is a conspiracy against the people between the government and the oil majors.

It is fair to ascertain that the Niger Delta is engulfed in short term oil politics and the majority of the population view the oil majors as de facto states, who have a duty to deliver. The oil majors have tried to assume this role, but their polices have often been misguided and not focused with the long term development of the Niger Delta population as a central driving factor. This failure to provide development based on the needs of the community has resulted in vast numbers of white elephant projects.

There is a clear feeling of non-association between the communities and the oil majors. Protests and recent kidnappings are often a result of a failure of the oil majors to proactively engage the whole community in appropriate dialogues. The resultant protests are often dealt with in heavily handled, unjustified manner by the state security apparatus and this reinforces the feeling of the oil majors and Nigerian state being one and the same.

The practices carried out by oil companies and highlighted by communities as contributing to violence are not primary drivers of the conflict, but are significant accelerators, as communities and individuals within communities scramble for the understandable limited handouts. These include: the nomination of host communities, flawed memorandum of understanding (MoUs), awarding of contracts, failure to engage all structures of society, cash handouts, the relationship with state security forces, environmental negligence and perhaps most importantly a short term focus to all of the above. These practices are all possible to change and however bad the relationship between the oil majors and communities might seem, a significant and immediate change of policy on all of the above issues would have an important impact in slowing the current conflict dynamic. All communities are open to dialogue and crying out for change. The population at large has had enough of 'brother killing brother', but can see no other option left open to secure their own fate.