2. Remove the source of revenue for criminal activities feeding the conflict

The present drive to address corruption in public office must expand to address the activities of criminal networks, and in particular the theft of oil. In view of the international nature of this illegal trade, international Law Enforcement agencies must co-operate with the Nigerian authorities to stem the flow of illicit oil leaving Nigeria. It is likely that arrests and prosecutions will occur in many countries besides Nigeria.

3. Ensure Nigeria's elections in 2007 aren't rigged

• Disarm the gangs and militias

Gangs and militias must be disarmed and lawful alternatives to gang-membership must be on offer to unemployed young men, to reduce risks of politically motivated violence during - and in the run up to - the 2007 elections.

The arming and financing of militia groups in the 2003 elections has precipitated the simmering conflict in the Niger Delta. The 2003 elections demonstrated that violence pays. Everyone is therefore concerned about what will happen in the run-up to 2007. Most political groupings must share responsibility, but the governing PDP and its supporters were the main instigators and backers of the militias. [55] Specifically, gang lords Asari and Ateke Tom are widely believed to have been involved in the election rigging, and to have received weapons and backing from the PDP and possibly others. [56]

• More election observers are needed

More external monitoring of elections in the Delta - and throughout Nigeria - and critical assessment of the democratic process is needed. During the electoral crisis in the Ukraine, 12 000 independent election monitors observed the second vote for President. [57] The population of Ukraine is about 47 000 000. [58] The population of Nigeria is approximately 132 000 000 [59] (almost three times the size.) In 2003, approximately 46 000 independent observers were deployed across Nigeria by a coalition co-ordinated by the Transition Monitoring Group. [60] Of these, only about 20 non-Nigerian observers from different organisations covered an area with a population of approximately 6 - 10 million.

• Observers need to be more frank in reporting outcomes

External monitoring of the electoral process - and the attention of the outside world - is widely credited with helping to prevent bloodshed in the Ukraine in 2004. Not only should more monitors be able to observe Nigeria's 2007 elections but the diffident assessment by external observer bodies of the wide-scale electoral fraud in 2003 (which was notoriously fraudulent in the Niger Delta) must not be repeated.