"Micro-factors" affecting the conflict

The triple threat

In very broad terms, there are three overlapping causes of the conflict - that may affect all stakeholders in Nigeria's natural and human wealth - which are specific to the Niger Delta:

• The State's failure to provide basic rights
• The scale and intensity of criminal network activities
• The political and other risks to external stakeholders posed by an intensification of conflict.

A political solution to the macro conflict drives within Nigeria must continue to be sought both internally, and supported externally. The Nigerian government must place pressure on the British and other governments with a stake in the Niger Delta to follow through on the findings of the Commission for Africa and post-G8 commitments: to end corruption; to poverty reduction; to promoting transparency, human rights and good governance.

However, as important to Nigeria and Africa as these commitments are, they have a medium to long term in focus. Any positive effect they might have may come too late to prevent the current simmering conflict in the Niger Delta from escalating catastrophically. The Niger Delta has got to a stage where micro factors within the framework of these macro failings are increasingly driving the conflict dynamic towards the point of critical mass, where non-violent solutions to the problems will be much harder to implement. Failure to address these micro dynamics now will render the efforts to address the macro issues futile and the triple threat will be realised.

Efforts to de-escalate the conflict must address all three micro drivers at once - as part of a single, interdependent problem - rather than focussing on just one set of causes at a time. The way these different forces combine to drive the conflict is not always apparent until the factors accelerate and intensify to the point where fighting breaks out, as in the September crisis in 2004. Violence - involving militias and gangs, who emerged following politically-motivated violence during the 2003 elections, and the military - combined with existing disputes within and between oil-producing communities - caused by poverty and a lack of basic rights - to drive the fears of oil companies, which led to limited shut downs.

Prior to the President Obasanjo's intervention in the crisis, the threat of oil industry shutdowns appeared to be accelerating the State government and military's aggressive response to the militias. There is an urgent need for all stakeholders to understand the interdependency of the triple threat posed in the Niger Delta. Even though there may be no obvious, outward sign of a major escalation now, all parties to the conflict - including external stakeholders like oil companies and investors - need to take action to ameliorate these "micro" causes - which feed off and amplify one another - before more intense fighting breaks out again.