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Conflict in the Delta would affect all of Nigeria

Since the October 2004 "war" declaration by one of the Delta's many militia leaders - Alhaji Asari Dokubo - the Nigerian Federal government has taken some limited but positive steps to address the problems driving conflict in the Delta. It appears political interests at the State level are blocking progress. There are a number of reasons for this, but the main obstacles seem to be actors manoeuvring ahead of the elections in order to maintain or gain access to sources of corrupt revenue, including criminal activities like "bunkering" (stealing oil from pipes) and arms dealing.

In addition, Stakeholder Democracy Network is aware of emerging evidence that a similar set of "conflict-drivers" to those found in the Delta are now appearing in other parts of Nigeria, especially in regard to proliferation of illegal small arms. Communal violence in the North and Central regions of Nigeria - mostly between Christian and Muslim communities - has left thousands dead and tens of thousands displaced in individual clashes in recent years. [7] This is without combatants having ready access to small arms in the volume now believed to be in circulation. Though religion is a factor driving these conflicts, the roots of the tension in both the North and Central regions are fundamentally political problems, like corruption and unemployment.

The self-evident risks of conflicts - and conflict-drivers like arms trafficking - in different regions of the country feeding off and sparking one another, and possibly combining into a national crisis, seem to be increasing. The problems in the Delta are somewhat more advanced in terms of their immediacy and potential severity than other parts of the country. As the economic heart of the country, conflict in the Delta presents a more immediate risk to Nigeria, the West African region and other stakeholders in the Delta's resources. [8]